En gammal "Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration" kallad Paul Craig Roberts skriver idag en intressant och smått upprörd artikel på Counterpunch. Roberts skriver om den typ av hybris som bl.a. många av västs nationalekonomer lider av och som anser den amerikanska ekonomin i princip vara oslagbar och föredömligt stabil. Den amerikanska ekonomin har dock sina uppenbara svagheter, bl.a. genom att den gjorts beroende av Kina.
The precarious position of the US dollar as reserve currency has been thoroughly ignored and denied. The delusion that the US is “the world’s sole superpower,” whose currency is desirable regardless of its excess supply, reflects American hubris, not reality. This hubris is so extreme that only 6 weeks ago McKinsey Global Institute published a study that concluded that even a doubling of the US current account deficit to $1.6 trillion would pose no problem.
Strategic thinkers, if any remain who have not been purged by neocons, will quickly conclude that China’s power over the value of the dollar and US interest rates also gives China power over US foreign policy. The US was able to attack Afghanistan and Iraq only because China provided the largest part of the financing for Bush’s wars.
If China ceased to buy US Treasuries, Bush’s wars would end. The savings rate of US consumers is essentially zero, and several million are afflicted with mortgages that they cannot afford. With Bush’s budget in deficit and with no room in the US consumer’s budget for a tax increase, Bush’s wars can only be financed by foreigners.
No country on earth, except for Israel, supports the Bush regimes’ desire to attack Iran. It is China’s decision whether it calls in the US ambassador, and delivers the message that there will be no attack on Iran or further war unless the US is prepared to buy back $900 billion in US Treasury bonds and other dollar assets.
The US, of course, has no foreign reserves with which to make the purchase. The impact of such a large sale on US interest rates would wreck the US economy and effectively end Bush’s war-making capability. Moreover, other governments would likely follow the Chinese lead, as the main support for the US dollar has been China’s willingness to accumulate them. If the largest holder dumped the dollar, other countries would dump dollars, too.
Jag tror Kina sitter på en enorma påtryckningsmöjligheter mot Washington med sina amerikanska obligationer och andra finansiella tillgångar i dollar. Och Kina kommer förmodligen, som Roberts menar att till viss del därav kunna forma USAs utrikespolitik. Det är bara en fråga om tid innan världens beroende av dollar bryts av antingen Kina eller någon av de stora oljeproducerande länderna, något som Washingtons hökar tänker göra allt för att dölja, motverka och förhindra.
Bloggar om: USA, Kina, amerikansk ekonomi, Paul Craig Roberts, petrodollar, dollarberoende
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